UPDATE: This rally has been cancelled; see
NavyChief at the SwiftVets forum has called “all hands on deck” for a demonstration on the Capitol Steps against Kerry this Sunday:
Do you really want to defeat Kerry as President?
Do you really feel deep down in your heart that this is the most important Presidential election in our history?
Will you sit by and watch as others try to defeat him?
Brothers and Sisters, how many people will be on the Capitol steps this Sunday, surrounded by media outlets and reporters from various organizations?
Will you join POWs in telling Kerry — YOU ARE NOT FIT TO COMMAND!
In a later update, he indicates:
I am going to try and use my humble contacts and exert pressure on Zell Miller and many other politicians to join us.
And finally:
Do you trust me?
What I posted earlier about Kerry’s discharge is coming.
– Chief
That would be this, which was subsequently removed from the Swift Vets forum. Interestingly, these notes haven’t been, which I guess either means the forum admins / SwiftVets leadership are now confident enough in the story to let NavyChief run with it — or, they’re just a little slow on the uptake in scouring posts on a Friday night.
The Swift Vets are going for broke on this, I think: it’s all or nothing now. As many of their forum posters have pointed out, the evidence on the discharge will be key. If the allegations are true and Kerry received a less than honorable, the effect will be nuclear and the MSM won’t be able to ignore it. If the evidence doesn’t exist — or the charges are false — then the Sunday rally will still be worth trying, but will have a far smaller chance of making any real impact in the deafening roar of last-minute messaging the campaigns will be in by then…
Latest:
Beth at MY Vast Right Wing Conspiracy sends the following details:
Date: Sunday Oct. 31, 2004
TIME: 1 PM meet at Naval Archives {NOT yard}
2 PM walk to Capital Building
DRESS: business/casual {yellow ribbon would be nice}
METRO INFO: Metro Transit web site for the subway routes. http://www.wmata.com
ANY CHANGES WILL BE ON MY BLOG
OR AT THE SBVT FORUM THREAD
UPDATE: This rally has been cancelled; see here
Day: October 29, 2004
The Batman Effect
So there’s Bin Laden tape out, the first in a long while.
This could be seen as an attempt by Bin Laden to influence the election against Bush; his mocking comments towards the President certainly make it come off that way.
But I don’t think it will work, because of a theory I’ll call “The Batman Effect”.
Batman is constantly trying to put the Joker out of business for good. But if you haven’t noticed, he generally never quite manages. The Joker is never, ever truly vanquished; he’ll always be back for more.
But when the Joker’s on the loose again, you don’t stop to think “Damn, Batman still hasn’t managed to get rid of this guy, we better find somebody else.” You don’t say “get me Aquaman on the phone.” You think about the only guy who actually does something about the Joker, even if it hasn’t been a permanent solution: the only guy who’s been able to do the clown some damage and set back his schemes a ways.
You put up the damned Bat Signal and hope that Batman answers the call.
Bush is Batman to Bin Laden’s Joker. And the American public isn’t going to dump Batman just because he hasn’t won the final battle with the Joker yet.
Bottom line: Bin Laden probably just gave the election to Bush. Not because of anything in particular he said: but simply because he lives, and Americans will realize that the lunatic has escaped from Arkham Asylum yet again…
PS: Hey! I think I finally fulfilled my promise to do a Heroes For Bush post myself, if somewhat belatedly…
Round the horn
Captain Ed: “As for the effect the tape will have on the election, I think it will be negligible. It reminds people that OBL is still alive, which hurts Bush; on the other hand, it reminds people that we’re at war and very much at risk, which hurts Kerry…”
Wiz and bang: “Osama Bin Laden, in his just released video tape, quotes Michael Moore’s “My Pet Goat” line. Remember, Michael Moore is so highly thought of by the Democrats that he was given a box seat for the Democratic convention…”
Bill at INDC: “Did bin Laden voice any displeasure with Bush’s support of the Federal Marriage Amendment? Because if he did, I think we definitely need to check Lockhart’s satellite phone records…”
The Jawa Report: “Many in the Muslim world are victims of the propaganda put forth by outlets such as al Jazeera. Al Jazeera and al Qaeda also believe they can foist this worldview upon the American people. They are wrong.
What will our response be to this propaganda effort? I am more confident now than I was just hours ago that President Bush will win reelection….”
Jeff G: “bin Laden
Kerry’s Discharge: News Soon?
The rumbling is starting to reach a fever pitch that there will be news soon on Kerry’s mysterious discharge from military service. notes the following post by NavyChief on the Swift Vet’s forum:
Okay, folks.
We got it finally. We have the Former Secretary of the Navy who stated, “Yes, Kerry did receive an Other Than Honorable Discharge”.
Stay tuned for more…
Note that if you follow the link now, you get the rather cryptic “Content removed at the request of the author. Stay tuned for updates. Will re-open the topic when we have further info. ”
So: right now, we have nothing. But perhaps, soon: something.
If you want to get warmed up, you should read Beldar’s extensive examination of the issue from October 13th.
Beldar and the usual suspects are on the case today as well. Stay tuned…
Update: There’s also an announcement on the Swift Vets forum now which reads:
“We have been advised that material was recently posted to this forum referencing the nature of John Kerry’s discharge from the military service. That material has been deleted from this forum.
Please be advised that posts made to this forum express the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Swift Vets and POWs for Truth.”
Well, ok then….
Wrong Seal? I’m afraid not
Megan McArdle posted following at Instapundit:
PHOTO FINISH: A reader emails the following:
“If you review the pictures on the KSTP web site that has the ABC video everyone is using you can see a very clear picture of a seal with its number (#144322). The PDF document of the UN inspections available show the numbers of the seals and none of them have that number. Therefore, it is clear that the bunkers that ABC videoed were not the ones that held the HMX the UN inspected.”
When I look at the KSTP site, it seems to me like the 144322 seal is presented as an example. It is shown with a neutral background, like it is a stock photo. I don’t think it’s being presented as from the actual site.
Update: And in fact, it is for certain a file photo. Here’s the exact same photo on the IAEA site.
Stand down…
Election Night Timeline
Edison Media research has posted guide to covering Election Night, which includes the following handy listing of when polls close throughout the night and the corresponding electoral votes that will be decided at those times:
7:00 PM – 58 EVs
7:30 PM – 40 EVs
8:00 PM – 171 EVs
8:30 PM – 6 EVs
9:00 PM – 159 EVs
10:00 PM – 20 EVs
11:00 PM – 81 EVs
1:00 AM – 3 EVs
All times Eastern. Hat tip: The Corner
Update 11/2: For those coming from Edison Media Research, be sure to check out the TTLB Election Resource page, with links to a wide range of election-tracking resources which can be displayed as a sidebar in your Mozilla or IE browser.
Explosivesgate Roundup: Day IV
Another day, another explosivesgate roundup! Let’s begin with the release of a single satellite image of the Al Qaaqaa facility by the Department of Defense, which shows trucks parked outside some of the bunkers.
GlobalSecurity.org cautions us, however, that the trucks do not appear to be parked directly in front of bunkers which were identified by the IAEA as containing HMX.
Like everyone else, I’m very curious if we’ll get additional images, or if this is it. As we say, “developing”.
On to other matters: the passtime for all the cool kids in the blogosphere last night was debunking the new video produced by ABC News (which seems to be having a rather difficult time remembering which side it is on).
Powerline, naturally considering it something of a hometown duty (given that it was a Minneapolis affiliate), does the math on the containers shown in the photographs, concluding: “On the most generous interpretation, there are nowhere near 380 tons of explosives shown in any of the KSTP photographs, or in all of them together.”
Jim Geraghty systematically dissects the argument that the videotape proves, well, anything:
As usual, it is foolish for folks to jump in and conclude that they know what was in the containers without gathering all of the facts. How many Kerry-backing writers who will cite this video as a smoking gun are familiar with what materials are classified 1.1D?
I sure as heck don’t know what 1.1D means. But then, I’m not squeaking “This is it folks!!! Conclusive proof!!! Case closed!!!“. (OK, he didn’t use exclamation points. But you know he wanted to…)
Captain Ed, also with a hometown dog in the fight, is also not impressed:
“Bottom line? The materials shown in the video could have been any of 80 different materials, with the three from the IAEA actually being among the least likely to have been stored in this manner. The reporters say that the military told them at the time that the area had been secured at an outer perimeter, a sensible approach for a military on a lightning-quick advance. And the Times cannot even verify that the video was taken at the ASP in question.”
Ed also notes approvingly the Washington Post story this morning, which he says “injects some context and not a little sanity into the hyperventilation coming from the Kerry campaign and the left on Al Qaqaa.” And
Meanwhile, Paul over at Wizbang is not impressed with the geography skills of ABC’s embed:
So he did not know where he was at the time the footage was shot. Not surprising, he’s not from there after all and let’s review, it’s a freaking desert.. But even after coming home and seeing it on the map, he still can’t confirm where he was…”
…and head Wizbanger Kevin sums it up nicely:
1. The containers KSTP filmed could contain any number of items that were not HMX or RDX.
2. They containers were filmed, as best as I can tell from the available evidence, in an area that was not sealed by the IAEA.
Hugh Hewitt wraps this aspect of the story nicely:
One bunker. Unknown number of barrels. Not sure if it is an I.A.E.A. seal. An unidentified expert.
Versus the greatest march of an army in history.
John Kerry and the MSM want the American public to conclude that the troops didn’t do their jobs? And this bit of video and a memo from I.A.E.A. is their proof?
Keep digging, MSM. Game’s up. Everybody knows.
The other significant and evolving aspect of the story yesterday was that the Bush administration began to carefully trot out the heavy hitters to begin debunking the story.
First up: General Tommy Franks! Beldar notes his appearance at a Bush campaign rally:
George W. Bush is a leader who knows that our troops, as of right now, have cleared 10,000 ammunition and weapons sites in Iraq. He knows that they have destroyed 240,000 tons of munitions in Iraq. He knows that they have under control