Day: June 10, 2002

[Map has been relocated to the top-left of the page]

Disclaimers:

1) This is not an offical fire map, but rather is my own personal attempt to combine information I’ve found on the official fire sites and other media outlets into a single, readable map. If you believe you may be in danger, consult your local authorities (see below for phone #s).

2) The data I’ve based the map on is virtualy guaranteed to be many hours behind the actual fire. The fire services are not able to keep their data updated so quickly, so the “current” data is always stale. The map that was just posted to the web is most likely based on a survey of the fire that took place three, six, or even twelve hours before.

The fire continues to grow, obviously. The Colorado media are all over the story, and in particular seems to be staying on top of things (I got the evacuation data for my map from one on their page).

KUSA is now reporting the fire as the largest in Colorado history. Some additional updated stats:

Size: 77,000 acres (I would bet it is most likely 90,000 – 100,000 by now)

Personnel Assigned: 400 firefighters on scene, 2 Type 1 crews, 8 Type 2 crews (see my earlier posts for descriptions of Type 1 vs. Type 2 crews)

Equipment Assigned: Type 1 Helicopters, Type 3 Helicopters, Type 1 Air Attack, Type 1 Air Tankers, Lead Planes, 11 engines, water tenders and dozers

Structures Lost: (This is directly from the fire services:) “Several with potential for many more”

Evacuation Information:

Park County Sheriff 719-836-2494
Douglas County Sheriff at 303-660-7500.

The American Red Cross is assisting and may be reached at (719) 748-3911 or 748-8215.

Jefferson County – Elk Creek Elementary is now changed to Chatfield High School 7227 S. Simms cross Freemont, Littleton 303-982-3670

Teller County – Woodland Park High School, 151 N. Baldwin 719-331-3645

Douglas County – Sedalia Elementary School, 5449 Huxtable St. 303-814-4735

Park County – Lake George Elementary, Hwy 24 in Lake George 719-748-3911

Continued good luck to all, and stay safe…

-NZB

I’m out to deal with some reallife things for a few hours. If you are genuinely in need of immediate information on the Colorado fires, first: contact your local authorities and listen to your local media. But if that doesn’t help, now has the same primary source information that I do, and can hand it out to those in genuine need.

I’ll be back later tonight and will try to do another fire update. Be safe everyone…

put in a special request for a larger map showing the Colorado fires in context of the entire state with major roads & cities. So, never one to reject the VP, I’ve attempted to comply.

The first map shows the fires (Hayman, Coal Seam — also known as Glenwood Springs, and a few others) in the context of Colorado as a whole, with major cities & roads marked.

The second map is a satellite image from yesterday which shows you the fires and their smoke plumes. I crudely annotated it with the major highways and cities of Colorado for context (placement of these was handdrawn in very approximate).

Note: Both of these maps are out-of-date; the most accurate map of the fire boundaries remains the one below in my previous post. (But keep in mind even that one is at least twelve hours out of date.)

I strongly urge anyone in the areas affected by these fires to stay closely tuned to your local media, and contact your local authorities if you are looking for official information on evacuation status.

Hope that helps VDude…

New Hayman Fire Map
[Map removed; see most current map at top-left of page]

The fire has now “split” and has two forks, each heading northeastward.

The black and white line map comes direct from the fire teams. The color terrain map is a modified version of the first map I posted today, which I marked up (very roughly) with the new information on the fire’s spread so that the fire’s relationship to the surrounding area can still be shown.

[Map removed; see most current map at top-left of page]

Brief non-fire item: Suman Palit has another (if grim) analysis of the prospects for war between India and Pakistan.

We are now getting very close to the time when reports suggested India would launch a limited attack into Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, if the terrorist attacks being launched from that territory were not stopped.

Predictions:

– We will see another major terrorist attack against Indian targets very soon, most likely this week. These people don’t want peace, and we’ve seen this game played out in Israel before: they will attack to ensure that there is no possibility of peace. I highly doubt Musharraf has the ability to stop the attacks entirely, even assuming he has the desire to do so.

– India will proceed with their attack, probably within the next two weeks, using the latest terrorist killings as the trigger.

– After that, I have no idea. As Suman points out, the threshold for useful prediction will get really short, really fast.

Hayman Fire Update

The fire is now being reported as follows as of 10am CDT:

Acres: 60,850 (up from 20,000 at last report)

Percent Contained: 5 % (down from 10%)

Teams Assigned: There are now two Type 1 teams assigned to the fire.

Air Equipment: 3 Type 1 helicopters, 2 Type 1 Air Attack, 4 Type 1 Air tankers, 2 lead planes, water tenders and dozers

Fire Behavior: Continues to be described as “extreme” and the fire is heading north / northeast

I’m finding mixed messages about the total # of personnel involved and the structures threatened; the 10am report indicates 220 personnel assigned, and only 20 residences threatened. I am inclined to believe the previous, more grim report, however — but maybe I’m just a pessimist.

Finally, the following narrative description of the situation is being published:

The Great Basin Type 1 team is assigned and assumed operational management of this fire effective this morning at 6 AM. A second Type 1 team will be arriving sometime this morning and will be stationed in Castle Rock. This second team will focus efforts on the northern end of the Hayman fire, especially working with the Sheriff’s offices in Douglas and Jefferson counties to coordinate evacuations. This wind driven fire, which was reported approximately 5 PM Saturday, grew very quickly due to the high wind conditions, high temperatures and low relative humidity’s. Last night, crews worked to burn out portions of the line along Platte Springs, in efforts to secure the heel of the fire. Today a priority for crews is to continue working along the eastern perimeter, anchoring and flanking the fire. Along the northern end of the fire, the priority will be on any additional evacuations, should they become necessary. We continue to receive resources in support of firefighting efforts.

If you read this closely, I think what it says is that on the northern end of the fire — the front of the fire — the teams are essentially focused on getting people the hell out of the way of this thing. I’m not sure they can do much to contain or stop it, at least until they get a break from the weather.

Some additional information on the Hayman fire:

– The map to the right shows the fire shaded in red. Populated areas are shaded in purple. Although this data is from the past 24 hours, it is still most likely out-of-date; the fire has almost certainly grown since this map was created. (Note: I’ve removed this version of the map; see above for a more current map)

– This morning’s report from the National Interagency Fire Center, which tracks all fire activity nationwide, describes the status of the Hayman fire as follows:

HAYMAN, Pike-San Isabel National Forest. A Type 1 Incident Management Team (Martin) has been ordered. This fire is burning six miles northwest of Lake George, CO in ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forest. High rates of spread to the north and east with extreme fire behavior were observed. Several camps, ranches, recreation areas and towns are being evacuated with 3,700 residences threatened. Twenty commercial structures and one outbuilding were lost.

A Type 1 team represents the highest level of escalation. Fires are generally managed by local resources, and then a regional team is called in if needed — a Type 2 team. For the most serious fires, a Type 1 team is called in — these are Federal fire management professionals. There are about twenty teams nationwide, and three active in Colorado currently. The Federal teams come with both experienced management resources to determine the most effective methods to attack and contain the fire, as well as personnel and equipment such as air tankers.

– The incident teams are reporting the following statistics about the fire:

269 people are currently dedicated to fighting the fire

3,700 homes are currently identified as threatened

The fire is estimated at 10% contained, which indicates it is essentially uncontrolled at this time

The fire behavior is being described as “extreme”, and the rate of spread is estimated at 1-2 miles per hour. (Look again at the map and the scale to understand the significance of that number).

The following media resources are tracking the fire closely and have photos & video of the situation:

– NBC affiliate

KMGH – ABC affiliate, “The Denver Channel”

The Denver Post

The Colorado Springs Gazette

PS – In case you are wondering, none of the data I’m providing is “inside” info from my father; it is all coming from publicly available resources. However, I’m going to break a blogging rule-of-thumb and not provide URLs for the moment, as these resources are the same ones that the actual fire teams use. And on the unlikely event my traffic spikes today, I don’t want to be responsible for hundreds of unanticipated hits bringing down those sites…

The Fire in Colorado is shaping up to be one of the worst ever. Keep an eye on this one, folks: I’m afraid it may get worse before it gets better.

And best of luck to the teams fighting it. Stay safe, and remember that motto: we can replace houses. We can’t replace firefighters.

Minimal Disclosure: I have a vested interest, here. My father is one of those who has been fighting this thing — although hopefully, from the safety of the command post today, though I think he might rather be out in the field. Hang in there, Dad…