Brief non-fire item: Suman Palit

Brief non-fire item: Suman Palit has another (if grim) analysis of the prospects for war between India and Pakistan.

We are now getting very close to the time when reports suggested India would launch a limited attack into Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, if the terrorist attacks being launched from that territory were not stopped.


– We will see another major terrorist attack against Indian targets very soon, most likely this week. These people don’t want peace, and we’ve seen this game played out in Israel before: they will attack to ensure that there is no possibility of peace. I highly doubt Musharraf has the ability to stop the attacks entirely, even assuming he has the desire to do so.

– India will proceed with their attack, probably within the next two weeks, using the latest terrorist killings as the trigger.

– After that, I have no idea. As Suman points out, the threshold for useful prediction will get really short, really fast.