More Nonflamable Posting: The N.Z.

More Nonflamable Posting: The N.Z. Bear Name FAQ

To my surprise, I received far fewer questions about my nom de plume than I had expected when I started TTLB. However, they are starting to pile up. And so, while I’ve answered some queries privately, it is time, I think, to publicly address some of the common questions. So here goes.

Is N.Z. Bear your real name?

No. It is indeed an alias.

Why the alias, coward? Are you chicken ?

Well, yes and no. I don’t particularly care if I potentially endanger myself by pissing off wackos. (And if I am not pissing off any wackos, I’m not accomplishing my goals for the site). However, I do have family, and they have the same name as I do. And so I’m uncomfortable with the possibility that, remote as it may be, some wacko might decide to show up on my doorstep and harass anyone I hold dear. And so, an alias.

Will you ever consider dropping the alias?

Yes, almost certainly. I think about it pretty frequently. (When I got the Salon piece published was certainly a big moment of decision… there was a heavy temptation to have it be my “true name” up in lights there). My conclusion, however, is that I can always “come out” later… but once “out”, there ain’t no going back. And so, for now, I remain a coward.

Does the N.Z. stand for New Zealand?

Probably the most common question. No, it does not. I’ve don’t live there, and in fact have never been there, although I hear it is lovely. (I live in California, which those of you who have been paying close attention already knew).

So what does it stand for?

It’s a private joke. And no, I’m not telling.

About the “Bear” part. Are you a large, hairy gay man?

Er, no. But thanks for asking. (I actually did receive this question — asked very politely, I might add — from a reader). Although I have now learned (also from said reader) that “bear” is a term some homosexual men of generally large build use to describe themselves, that would not be me.

If you have a N.Z. Bear name question that wasn’t answered here, by all means, it my way! I’ll try to answer it — or at least evade it in an entertaining fashion.

A Post About Something That

A Post About Something That Isn’t On Fire — With Special Bonus Nomenclature !

VodkaGuy, clearly befuddled by the unending dilemma of whether he wants to be or Paul Wolfowitz when he grows up, misses the lead in his takedown this morning of accused “dirty-bomber” Jose Padilla.

VP cites Padilla’s impressive rap sheet (Chicago gang member, assault, etc.) as evidence that al Qaeda will take anybody — as opposed to our fine U.S. Marine Corps, who are of course looking simply for a few good men.

What VP forgets, however, is that to the Islamofascists, a disregard for human life, violent behavior, and a general lack of morality are assets. Viewed through that lens, Perdillo is imminently qualified.

By the way: let’s drop the tag “dirty-bomber”. There’s a much better moniker to stick on Padilla and his ilk : wannabomber.

I think it summarizes both the facts of his (alleged) intentions, and also nicely captures the pathetic, cowardly loserdom inherent in a man — or at least, a male human, not a man — who would seek to kill innocents in such a manner.

It’s a nice generic term, too, and can be applied with equal validity to the Palestinian murderers-to-be who are caught before they can carry out their attacks, and (with even greater enjoyment) to those who accidentally blow themselves up before they can harm any women and children…

Update: I goofed and got the wannabomber’s name wrong. The error has now been corrected; thanks to Kevin at Flyover for pointing it out.

If you are truly desperate

If you are truly desperate for the latest rumours about the Hayman fire, you can monitor the IRC channel that Pinecam.com has set up. Keep in mind that anybody and everybody is chatting in there, so information you read may be inaccurate, completely wrong, or malicious lies. Or all three. This is not an official government source — see the list of phone numbers at the top-left of the page for the appropriate local resources near you.

You can access the channel via your browser or via your own IRC client at chat.planetz.net, port 6667, channel #pinechat .

Update 2/21/03: The folks at Pinecam are continuing their efforts to provide useful and accurate information; see this thread on their discussion board for additional info:
We are working with local fire authorities now to make sure information given out on Pinecam this season is more responsible and sensitive to the needs of firefighters and possible fire victims. You may find less direct scanner posts on Pinecam this year, but rest assured the important information will still be here. We’re just not going to be posting — willy-nilly — everything that we hear on the scanner.

Folks – I’ve taken down

Folks –

I’ve taken down my handmade fire maps. I know this may disappoint some, but I am concerned that folks may start to rely on my information as “definitive” — which it is not. In addition, I am fearful that even the official info coming out (which I based my maps on) is significantly behind the real fire, and I am worried about posting a map that is actually half-a-day out of date.

So: No more pretty pictures, sorry. But I will continue to post official info as I find it, as well as links to resources. Hope y’all understand.

I just updated the map

I just updated the map to more accurately reflect the most current information on expected / “encouraged” evacuation areas. In addition, there is now a high-quality version of the map available; click on the map for the larger version.

The Douglas County Sheriff has

The Douglas County Sheriff has a news release out this morning regarding evacuations. In a nutshell, it sounds like the areas to the northeast of the fire will be under mandatory evacuation orders sometime today, and the sheriff is encouraging residents of those areas to leave now. (Phone number for Douglas County sherriff’s office can be found in the left navigation bar).

Release Date: 06/11/02 Release Time 8:00 a.m.

DOUGLAS CONTY, CO — Although the Hayman fire did not advance much overnight, conditions today are right for the fire to once again advance rapidly and unpredictably.

The Sheriff’s Office is contacting Neighborhood Watch block captains to augment its emergency notification capability. Evacuation notices for affected neighborhoods have been loaded into the EPN emergency telephone notification system to allow for immediate notification of citizens in the event of an evacuation order.

While NO NEW EVACUATION ORDERS HAVE BEEN ISSUED, the sheriff’s office is highly encouraging residents of all urban-wildland interface areas between Perry Park (on the south) and Roxborough Village (on the north) – to include Sedalia, Indian Creek Ranch, Oak Valley and surrounding areas — to give serious consideration to the idea of leaving now. If the fire advances quickly toward a residential area, an emergency evacuation order may not allow enough time for people to leave in an orderly manner, especially given inevitable traffic congestion.

Residents are STRONGLY ENCOURAGED to pack up medications in their original containers, insurance and other important papers, a change of clothing, and any other items they need at this time.

The sheriff’s office is establishing and will maintain checkpoints in the area to discourage non-residents from trying to get into the area. Consequently, residents should make sure they have identification with their current address with them at all times.

Residents should also be aware that if an evacuation is ordered, residents WILL NOT be allowed back into the affected areas until it is safe to do so. Please DO NOT WAIT for an evacuation order to be issued to make these critical preparations.

If you’re looking for even

If you’re looking for even more Hayman fire information, check out In addititon to a blog, they’ve also got folks who are monitoring scanner frequencies and posting updates to a message board on what they hear.

In particular, you’ll find information in the blog about resources that fire fighters are in need of — snack foods, water, minor first aid supplies, things like that. Check it out, and if you are in the area and can spare anything, help them out!

PS – And no, my father’s not on the Hayman fire today (I think), so I’m not plugging this to get my Dad some chips!

Okay, as I’ve been focusing

Okay, as I’ve been focusing my efforts almost exclusively on the Hayman fire, I’ve implemented a temporary site redesign. I’ll be updating the map above with additional information as it comes in, as well as the statistics to the right.

As always: I’m doing what I can, but please, please, contact your local authorities for official information.

With the redesign, I may even be able to cover some non-fire stuff today without reducing the prominence of the Hayman info, so we’ll see how that goes.

[Map has been relocated to

[Map has been relocated to the top-left of the page]

Disclaimers:

1) This is not an offical fire map, but rather is my own personal attempt to combine information I’ve found on the official fire sites and other media outlets into a single, readable map. If you believe you may be in danger, consult your local authorities (see below for phone #s).

2) The data I’ve based the map on is virtualy guaranteed to be many hours behind the actual fire. The fire services are not able to keep their data updated so quickly, so the “current” data is always stale. The map that was just posted to the web is most likely based on a survey of the fire that took place three, six, or even twelve hours before.

The fire continues to grow, obviously. The Colorado media are all over the story, and in particular seems to be staying on top of things (I got the evacuation data for my map from one on their page).

KUSA is now reporting the fire as the largest in Colorado history. Some additional updated stats:

Size: 77,000 acres (I would bet it is most likely 90,000 – 100,000 by now)

Personnel Assigned: 400 firefighters on scene, 2 Type 1 crews, 8 Type 2 crews (see my earlier posts for descriptions of Type 1 vs. Type 2 crews)

Equipment Assigned: Type 1 Helicopters, Type 3 Helicopters, Type 1 Air Attack, Type 1 Air Tankers, Lead Planes, 11 engines, water tenders and dozers

Structures Lost: (This is directly from the fire services:) “Several with potential for many more”

Evacuation Information:

Park County Sheriff 719-836-2494
Douglas County Sheriff at 303-660-7500.

The American Red Cross is assisting and may be reached at (719) 748-3911 or 748-8215.

Jefferson County – Elk Creek Elementary is now changed to Chatfield High School 7227 S. Simms cross Freemont, Littleton 303-982-3670

Teller County – Woodland Park High School, 151 N. Baldwin 719-331-3645

Douglas County – Sedalia Elementary School, 5449 Huxtable St. 303-814-4735

Park County – Lake George Elementary, Hwy 24 in Lake George 719-748-3911

Continued good luck to all, and stay safe…

-NZB

I’m out to deal with

I’m out to deal with some reallife things for a few hours. If you are genuinely in need of immediate information on the Colorado fires, first: contact your local authorities and listen to your local media. But if that doesn’t help, now has the same primary source information that I do, and can hand it out to those in genuine need.

I’ll be back later tonight and will try to do another fire update. Be safe everyone…

VodkaGuy put in a special

put in a special request for a larger map showing the Colorado fires in context of the entire state with major roads & cities. So, never one to reject the VP, I’ve attempted to comply.

The first map shows the fires (Hayman, Coal Seam — also known as Glenwood Springs, and a few others) in the context of Colorado as a whole, with major cities & roads marked.

The second map is a satellite image from yesterday which shows you the fires and their smoke plumes. I crudely annotated it with the major highways and cities of Colorado for context (placement of these was handdrawn in very approximate).

Note: Both of these maps are out-of-date; the most accurate map of the fire boundaries remains the one below in my previous post. (But keep in mind even that one is at least twelve hours out of date.)

I strongly urge anyone in the areas affected by these fires to stay closely tuned to your local media, and contact your local authorities if you are looking for official information on evacuation status.

Hope that helps VDude…

New Hayman Fire Map[Map removed;

New Hayman Fire Map
[Map removed; see most current map at top-left of page]

The fire has now “split” and has two forks, each heading northeastward.

The black and white line map comes direct from the fire teams. The color terrain map is a modified version of the first map I posted today, which I marked up (very roughly) with the new information on the fire’s spread so that the fire’s relationship to the surrounding area can still be shown.

[Map removed; see most current map at top-left of page]

Brief non-fire item: Suman Palit

Brief non-fire item: Suman Palit has another (if grim) analysis of the prospects for war between India and Pakistan.

We are now getting very close to the time when reports suggested India would launch a limited attack into Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, if the terrorist attacks being launched from that territory were not stopped.

Predictions:

– We will see another major terrorist attack against Indian targets very soon, most likely this week. These people don’t want peace, and we’ve seen this game played out in Israel before: they will attack to ensure that there is no possibility of peace. I highly doubt Musharraf has the ability to stop the attacks entirely, even assuming he has the desire to do so.

– India will proceed with their attack, probably within the next two weeks, using the latest terrorist killings as the trigger.

– After that, I have no idea. As Suman points out, the threshold for useful prediction will get really short, really fast.

Hayman Fire UpdateThe fire is

Hayman Fire Update

The fire is now being reported as follows as of 10am CDT:

Acres: 60,850 (up from 20,000 at last report)

Percent Contained: 5 % (down from 10%)

Teams Assigned: There are now two Type 1 teams assigned to the fire.

Air Equipment: 3 Type 1 helicopters, 2 Type 1 Air Attack, 4 Type 1 Air tankers, 2 lead planes, water tenders and dozers

Fire Behavior: Continues to be described as “extreme” and the fire is heading north / northeast

I’m finding mixed messages about the total # of personnel involved and the structures threatened; the 10am report indicates 220 personnel assigned, and only 20 residences threatened. I am inclined to believe the previous, more grim report, however — but maybe I’m just a pessimist.

Finally, the following narrative description of the situation is being published:

The Great Basin Type 1 team is assigned and assumed operational management of this fire effective this morning at 6 AM. A second Type 1 team will be arriving sometime this morning and will be stationed in Castle Rock. This second team will focus efforts on the northern end of the Hayman fire, especially working with the Sheriff’s offices in Douglas and Jefferson counties to coordinate evacuations. This wind driven fire, which was reported approximately 5 PM Saturday, grew very quickly due to the high wind conditions, high temperatures and low relative humidity’s. Last night, crews worked to burn out portions of the line along Platte Springs, in efforts to secure the heel of the fire. Today a priority for crews is to continue working along the eastern perimeter, anchoring and flanking the fire. Along the northern end of the fire, the priority will be on any additional evacuations, should they become necessary. We continue to receive resources in support of firefighting efforts.

If you read this closely, I think what it says is that on the northern end of the fire — the front of the fire — the teams are essentially focused on getting people the hell out of the way of this thing. I’m not sure they can do much to contain or stop it, at least until they get a break from the weather.

Some additional information on the

Some additional information on the Hayman fire:

– The map to the right shows the fire shaded in red. Populated areas are shaded in purple. Although this data is from the past 24 hours, it is still most likely out-of-date; the fire has almost certainly grown since this map was created. (Note: I’ve removed this version of the map; see above for a more current map)

– This morning’s report from the National Interagency Fire Center, which tracks all fire activity nationwide, describes the status of the Hayman fire as follows:

HAYMAN, Pike-San Isabel National Forest. A Type 1 Incident Management Team (Martin) has been ordered. This fire is burning six miles northwest of Lake George, CO in ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forest. High rates of spread to the north and east with extreme fire behavior were observed. Several camps, ranches, recreation areas and towns are being evacuated with 3,700 residences threatened. Twenty commercial structures and one outbuilding were lost.

A Type 1 team represents the highest level of escalation. Fires are generally managed by local resources, and then a regional team is called in if needed — a Type 2 team. For the most serious fires, a Type 1 team is called in — these are Federal fire management professionals. There are about twenty teams nationwide, and three active in Colorado currently. The Federal teams come with both experienced management resources to determine the most effective methods to attack and contain the fire, as well as personnel and equipment such as air tankers.

– The incident teams are reporting the following statistics about the fire:

269 people are currently dedicated to fighting the fire

3,700 homes are currently identified as threatened

The fire is estimated at 10% contained, which indicates it is essentially uncontrolled at this time

The fire behavior is being described as “extreme”, and the rate of spread is estimated at 1-2 miles per hour. (Look again at the map and the scale to understand the significance of that number).

The following media resources are tracking the fire closely and have photos & video of the situation:

– NBC affiliate

KMGH – ABC affiliate, “The Denver Channel”

The Denver Post

The Colorado Springs Gazette

PS – In case you are wondering, none of the data I’m providing is “inside” info from my father; it is all coming from publicly available resources. However, I’m going to break a blogging rule-of-thumb and not provide URLs for the moment, as these resources are the same ones that the actual fire teams use. And on the unlikely event my traffic spikes today, I don’t want to be responsible for hundreds of unanticipated hits bringing down those sites…

The Hayman Fire in Colorado

The Fire in Colorado is shaping up to be one of the worst ever. Keep an eye on this one, folks: I’m afraid it may get worse before it gets better.

And best of luck to the teams fighting it. Stay safe, and remember that motto: we can replace houses. We can’t replace firefighters.

Minimal Disclosure: I have a vested interest, here. My father is one of those who has been fighting this thing — although hopefully, from the safety of the command post today, though I think he might rather be out in the field. Hang in there, Dad…

Chicks with dick jokesOkay, time

Chicks with dick jokes

Okay, time for some serious sociology. Or at least snarky media criticism, which often passes for serious sociology in our particular culture (well, mine, if you happen to not be reading this from the good ole’ US of A ).

But first, let me unload my official position on aesthetics: when it comes to art, there are no right answers.

None. Zip. Zero. Nada. Bupkiss.

Art, by definition, is subjective. If it weren’t, they’d call it science, and they’d have to peer-review Guide.

Stating that one particular musical composition is “better” than another is a complete absurdity. Same goes for television, theater, movies, painting, sculpture, and abstract compositions of religious icons composed solely of dung from endangered species found only in and around MOMA.

The only criteria commonly used to assess art that can be said to be objective is how many people like it. This is a painful realization. It means Britney Spears comes out ahead of Moby. It means that Independence Day is “better” than Vanilla Sky. It means that Friends is superior to Buffy.

I’m trying to point out unpleasant ideas here, if it isn’t getting through.

But that’s the way it is. So best not to worry about it. And therefore: best to approach any discussion of art with the idea that, unlike history, politics, and science — there are no right answers. There’s just the noise you’re making in your argument, and the noise the other guy is making with his. And the question is: who can shout louder.

And so: On to the shouting.

I will put it simply: I do not understand Sex and the City.

Sopranos, I get. (I have issues with it, but I enjoy it, and I wouldn’t for a second try to say it’s not an extremely well done show — and my qualms are subject for another post). Six Feet Under, I haven’t seen. But Sex and the City, I have, and damnit, it drives me nuts.

So what’s the problem? you ask. Don’t watch it. Take your own advice, and sleep soundly knowing that there are no objective measures of culture.

Surely you can figure this part out.

Yup. You got it right. My fianc

Mickey says Coleen Rowley was

Mickey says Coleen Rowley was wrong. He’s right. And wrong.

Mickey had brief entry this week on Coleen Rowley’s testimony and the issue of which is more to blame for intelligence failures : the bureaucrats at the FBI, or the laws they must follow.

While I am taking to heart Mickey’s own solemn admonishment to “Always trust content from kausfiles!” (like we didn’t already?), I think the Mickster overplays his hand slightly on this one.

He starts out OK, pointing out (correctly) that there is more than just the problem of Those Damned Bureaucrats to deal with at the FBI in his reference to a piece by Stuart Taylor in the National Journal. His money quote, referring to the need under current law for a suspect to be a member of a terrorist group to merit full surveillance, is bang on as well: “So if it’s just one guy who wants to blow up the Superbowl, we leave him alone!”

Flush with this nice turn of the phrase, though, Mickey slides over the line with his closer: “The problem is less dumb bureaucrats than dumb law.”

Well, maybe. There are a whole heck of a lot of things that went wrong here, and I’m not convinced that we’re in a position yet to point definitively to which factor was the most significant (although to be fair, Mickey’s statement only explicitly compares two of them). But here’s my list:

– A culture of caution at the FBI and other agencies where not screwing up was viewed as more important than catching the bad guys

– A particular fear of anything that resembled ethnic profiling (i.e., looking at Arabs taking flight lessons), particularly due to recent embarrassments in that area (i.e., Wen Ho Lee)

– Legal restrictions that set the bar for surveillance requests unreasonably high in a well-intentioned but misguided attempt to protect civil liberties

– Antiquated processes for analyzing incoming intelligence information which resulted in a failure to be able to add 2 and 2 and reach a number somewhere between 3 and 5.

To make matters more complex, these factors aren’t independent, but all blend together and cause nasty little feedback loops with each other: if there was a culture more attuned to catching the bad guys than not rocking the boat, wouldn’t somebody have bitched enough to get their analysis processes fixed long ago? And if there wasn’t that culture of caution, couldn’t a smart FBI lawyer have made a legitimate argument that the case Rowley complained about had met the standard of probable cause?

If that argument had been made and was rejected, then I’d put more credence in the idea that the problem is the law, not the bureaucrats. But the problem is that to my understanding, the folks submitting that request didn’t even really try — a token effort was made at best, and the request was torpedoed at worst. That suggests to me that the law may indeed be a major part of the problem — but the bureaucrats are just as big a part.

That said, Mickey is absolutely right to keep hammering on his point o’ the week: that those who just want to blame the bureaucrats are wrong. Blaming the bureaucrats is appropriate. But thinking that they are the only problem is the same kind of oversimplification that got us into this mess in the first place.

Whoo-hoo! The poll is now

Whoo-hoo! The poll is now working. Thanks to the nice folks at PulsePoll for getting back to me.

For anyone else trying this, the problem was that apparently having the default for my page set to open new browser windows for links was screwing it up (go figure). Since I’ve been thinking about resetting that to remain in the current window anyway, I just went for it.

So go vote, already!